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http://news.usni.org/2015/07/08/essay-chinas-submarine-solution-for-the-taiwan-strait

This might give you a little more of an appreciation of what the PLAN is thinking.

Wanderjar

http://news.usni.org/2015/01/02/taiwan-kicks-off-domestic-attack-sub-program

And here is Taiwan's response.

Wanderjar

Stevid wrote:Is it not too absurd to think that the next major conflict that has huge implications on the world could be born out of US action over its diminishing power?
Not to say it is, US 'soft power' through globalisation and cultural influences make it incredibly powerful but US military might is massive factor on how nations interact with the US.
Speaking as a European military man, 330,000 troops is a lot, bearing in mind that these troops have wartime experience as opposed to China and, to some extent, Russia.
But should the US get upset that her military rivals are overtaking her, won't America be getting more and more physically involved in situations and crises it probably stay away from, perhaps Africa? The South China Sea stand off is one area where one person's bad decisions could have major ramifications - America's presence there is massive.

I'm not too concerned by a shrinking US military, I'm more concerned at what America will do should they think their position as genuine world leaders is threatened by emerging powers. History has shown large Empires will eventually fall, if not by bloodshed but with grace too. America has an Empire, of a sort. Their impact on the world is felt everywhere, be it through economics, politics, military prowess and technological innovation. Should this 'equilibrium' be threatened and other states start to see bigger and better progress, I can see the US forcibly stepping in for the stake of 'US National Interests'.

I never said that I didn't think the US couldn't be the aggressor, I just said that there'd definitely be another Great War most like as a result of the diminishing of US influence and a shift towards a multi-polar world. I don't believe the US will ever fade into irrelevance like the Roman Empire, but I think you'll see it diminish into 'Great Power' status away from 'Super Power' status.

Lamoni wrote:http://news.usni.org/2015/07/08/essay-chinas-submarine-solution-for-the-taiwan-strait

This might give you a little more of an appreciation of what the PLAN is thinking.

When I was a freshman in college back in 2008 I took public speaking, and did a presentation on Chinese Naval Grand Strategy and the necessary US response (Yeah...I was that guy), and I totally predicted that **** lol

It is only prudent to think that the PLAN and PLAAF will explore all possible ways to keep the US away from Taiwan in the event that they decide to take the place over.

Wanderjar

http://news.usni.org/2013/11/13/asias-submarine-race

And here is the response in the rest of Asia.

This reminds me of the novel series Occupied Seattle. The Chinese capture Seattle and Tacoma in a Pearl Harbour-like surprise attack and also capturing a number of American nukes*. They threaten to detonate the American cities unless the Americans stay out of the Pacific War as China invades Taiwan.

* I haven't read the series yet but what we've being talking about made me think of it.

It'd be quite the trick for China to get enough troops to the Seattle area to make that a credible threat.

Seattle fears Canada

Not really, no.

Also, this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wojtek_%28bear%29

The Chinese wouldn't be capable of doing that. Regardless, fiction is fiction.

Holy Marsh wrote:The Chinese wouldn't be capable of doing that. Regardless, fiction is fiction.

Agreed, just like the new Red Dawn movie.

You mean the one where they couldn't decide if it was China or North Korea attacking the US? ;)

Lamoni wrote:It'd be quite the trick for China to get enough troops to the Seattle area to make that a credible threat.

Nah, World in Conflict did it with container ships and Soviets, and it was almost believable.

Mokastana, Castille de Italia, and Wanderjar

Wanderjar wrote:Morrdh Stevid: Mostly to Morrdh, I want to attack your fleet/supply ships at Imbrinium. Of course, I want to know if you're okay with this course of action before I do that.

I'm hoping to be wrapping things up with Imb, so I'd probably say hold off on it for the moment.

Wanderjar

That has a fatal flaw. The Soviets never had enough ships to do that with.

You know what, I don't think there's being a believable fiction scenario where America gets invaded let alone occupied. Though, I think we all believe the myth that America won't fall...at least for now.

Lynion wrote:You know what, I don't think there's being a believable fiction scenario where America gets invaded let alone occupied. Though, I think we all believe the myth that America won't fall...at least for now.

This.^
It's far too unlikely, especially in this modern age. Unless you have a coalition with member states that have a fully functioning blue water navy with similar technology and capabilities to the USN, then such an outcome will never come to pass.

Considering the only countries capable of collaborating in such away to defeat the USN and invade are France, UK, Netherlands, Spain and Italy (Probably altogether too). Even then the US has enough in the tank to counter attack. For perspective, I can say what I want about how professional the UK military is, or how hardcore the Dutch Marines are; but when the US Marine Corps numbers as large as the UK military it shows just what a force America is.

I exclude the Russian and Chinese navies because the Russian Navy is in dire need of an overhaul and we've already touched on the PLAN. Neither possesses the conventional equipment to do enough damage to the USN (or other military arm for that matter) to actually successfully invade the US.

Wanderjar wrote:

Morrdh Stevid: Mostly to Morrdh, I want to attack your fleet/supply ships at Imbrinium. Of course, I want to know if you're okay with this course of action before I do that. Stevid, if you want to have this reignite the war along our border (with a limited sense, think Israel-Egypt 1970, a so called 'Battle Day') I am perfectly okay with this, in fact I'd prefer it that way. I won't 'gain' any ground through it, but I encourage you to try to gain something back if you want. I know you're really busy that's why I'm saying if you want it to happen that way, make it as unstressful as possible yet fun. As always, y'all know I'm really easy to work with on these things :)

My response would depend on Morrdh and how the peace talks are going. Seeing as he wants to finish things with Imb the skirmish, unfortunately, probably won't happen. I'll get my post up tonight I hope, I'll give you something to chew on maybe. Or I'll compile another quick one after.

Wanderjar

Stevid wrote:

I'm not too concerned by a shrinking US military, I'm more concerned at what America will do should they think their position as genuine world leaders is threatened by emerging powers. History has shown large Empires will eventually fall, if not by bloodshed but with grace too. America has an Empire, of a sort.

The United States has much stronger (much more robust) political institutions than any other previous world power, which makes a big difference. The U.S. may not remain the foremost power in the world, but I don't think it will 'go' in the same way past empires have. Maybe something much closer to what happened to Britain, which is a much better comparison due to the similarities in institutions.

The Macabees wrote:The United States has much stronger (much more robust) political institutions than any other previous world power, which makes a big difference. The U.S. may not remain the foremost power in the world, but I don't think it will 'go' in the same way past empires have. Maybe something much closer to what happened to Britain, which is a much better comparison due to the similarities in institutions.

But America's progress on the world stage has been through cultural globalisation and assimilation rather than imperial gain. I'm not going to pretend I'm an expert but America probably stands to lose much more than just face if a resurgent China starts to lead the world. China and Russia don't exactly evoke thoughts of freedom (China certainly doesn't), yet Chinese culture is ever present around the world and their military prowess is unquestioned.
I can't see America 'bowing out', so to speak, to the likes of Russia and China. Perhaps not even to a hypothetical united European nation-state; maybe on the principle that 'Europe had there turn'.

I don't want to sound too much like I'm saying America is too arrogant to bow out to a growing power. However given how often they intervene on the world stage with military power, I could see the US exercising that muscle to ensure the remain top of the 'national food chain'.

TBH I don't even mind that too much, every nation wants to better itself and not want to be left behind. I worry about where that leaves America's allies.

Lamoni and Wanderjar

I don't see how America has allies. We treat our supposed allies like crap, yet expect them to have our backs in a pinch. American foreign policy is positively terrible. Now, y'all know I love my country, but this is one area where I sincerely believe my country is fundamentally flawed to the core.

United world order

We treat our allies like crap yet the US is labeled the worlds police force. Makes sense. We do morefor our allies than we do for ourselves domesticly.

America will one day be invaded, successfully, by a foreign power.
America as we know it will one day cease to exist.
America will fall into the same level of historical relevance as the likes of Rome.

It will all happen, there is no denying it. Whether it happens in 50 years or 500 years (or longer) is really the only thing you can debate on.

Stevid wrote:But America's progress on the world stage has been through cultural globalisation and assimilation rather than imperial gain. I'm not going to pretend I'm an expert but America probably stands to lose much more than just face if a resurgent China starts to lead the world.

What would they lose?

----

The nature of political change has changed itself over the centuries. Shifts in political power no longer come with the same shifts in political identity -- e.g. Spain, England, etc. I mean, it could very well be that one day the identity 'USA' no longer exists, but the comparisons to Rome are exaggerated and don't consider the institutional progress the Western world has made over the past 1,000 years.

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