The Northern Sentinel - September Election Center

Citizens of The North Pacific lining up at their polling places.

By Altmoras Prime.

This election is one to watch, and it has managed to become as such without any real struggle for three out of the four available offices. The races for Delegate, Speaker, and Attorney General are all massively one sided, with clear front runners and very little drama. However the race for Vice Delegate makes up for the drab state of the other races in spades. Incumbent Vice Delegate Kaschovia, and Minister of Home Affairs Siwale are locked in contest with each other for the seat of our fair region's vice delegacy, Hong kong empire is also running for the seat, but this paper judges a Hong Kong victory to be statistically improbable.

The Vice Delegate race rapidly heated up shortly after both Kasch and Siwale declared their candidacies, with a flurry of discussion occurring between the candidates and interested citizens in both candidates' campaign threads. At the time of writing Siwale and Kasch's campaign threads have been replied to 91 times and read 2337 times, with Siwale's being the more popular of the two. In fact, Siwale's campaign has been more popular in general, as will be seen in the election analysis and predictions lower down in this article.

Of course the Vice Delegacy isn't the only seat up for grabs this cycle, Delegate, Speaker, and Attorney General are all up for grabs. However there are no serious challenges to the incumbents for any of the aforementioned positions, incumbent delegate Pallaith, incumbent speaker Owenstacey, and incumbent Attorney General Darcania are all very successfully running for reelection to their positions with little in the way of serious opposition.

The Sentinel values statistics and evidence based reporting, and as such we have compiled data on the election to support our analysis. There are currently two days left to vote, and there have been seventy two votes cast so far. By compiling the average voter turnout of the last three elections (May '17, Jan '17, and Sep '16) The Sentinel predicts approximately eighty three total votes for this current election, a number that happens to be identical to the number of votes cast in the September 2016 General Election.

For Delegate.

Given the supermajority of votes incumbent Delegate Pallaith posesses, the Sentinel is confident in projecting a Pallaith Victory for this election.

For Vice Delegate.

Kasch had a lead in early voters, however once the first private ballots were published publicly Siwale took the lead and has maintained it since. Given that the Sentinel has projected only 11 more voters over the next two days before voting closes and that incumbent Vice Delegate Kasch would require 9 of these 11 voters to vote for him in order to retake the lead we project the outcome of the Vice Delegate Race to be a Very Likely Siwale Victory.

For Speaker.

Incumbent Speaker Owenstacey maintains significant electoral support and faced no challenge this election, The Sentinel projects an Owenstacey Victory for Speaker.

For Attorney General.

Despite having an actual living opponent, incumbent Attorney General Darcania received the exact same amount of electoral support as the unopposed Speaker Owenstacey. Accordingly The Sentinel projects a Darcania Victory for Attorney General.

I won't devote any time to analyzing the situation here, it is up to you the reader to decide what you think about this data and why that is. This has been Altmoras writing for The Northern Sentinel.