Q7 "rubric" incase others are wondering

What was the main cause for the Kanzlian Collapse?

KEY PASSAGE:

”The cold climate of Kanzlia had historically forced Kanzlia to rely on imported grain to feed its population. However for most of its history Kanzlia had never encountered a problem with that reliance, being able to continuously import grain to the country through economic relations with other countries. However this reliance on imported goods turns out was only held by a thin string and could collapse at any moment. That collapse occurred in the 60s which is now known as the Kanzlian Collapse.*

*The exact cause of the collapse is still a subject of debate among historians. Events such as the harsh winter of Boxing Day 1960 is usually referred to as the start date of the Kanzlian Collapse. But prior events such as the breakdown of trading relations with neighbouring countries and the Szbedansk shipyard fire which brought the shipbuilding industry to a halt, are also contributing factors. Regardless, a culmination of events spiralled into the complete collapse of the flow of grain to Kanzlia. At this time, the national reserve of grain was disbanded earlier in 1951, which meant Kanzlia could not sustain its population when no grain was entering the country. A nationwide famine was exacerbated with the lack of policy to combat famine by the government. By the time the first grain export arrived in March 1962, an estimated 10 million Kanzlians had starved to death, with nearly all of them in Kalta. It was in March 1962 which many historians consider the end of the Kanzlian Collapse. The Szbedansk Royal Family abdicated on January 4th 1961 as they sold nearly all of their property to raise funds for the first grain export.”

-Main Factbook

POSSIBLE ANSWERS:

1. Reliance on imported grain
2. Harsh winter of Boxing Day 1960
3. Breakdown of trading relations with neighbouring countries
4. Szbedansk shipyard fire
5. Disbandment of the national grain reserve in 1951
6. Lack of policy to combat famine by the government

The breakdown of trading relations with neighbouring countries was the main cause for the Kanzlian Collapse.

Why is it not reliance on imported grain?

- The passage states that the reliance on imported grain had been ongoing for most of its history. It has been a condition that Kanzlia has been subject to ever since ages ago.

- The first paragraph of the passage is the context of Kanzlia’s position. Not the cause.

- The question asks for the main cause, which asks a singular event or a series of events that are closely related to each other. Reliance on imported grain is a condition, not an event.

Why is it not the harsh winter of the 1960 Boxing Day?

- Boxing Day 1960 is mentioned as the start date and not specifically mentioned as a possible cause. Regardless, harsh winters wouldn't have caused a complete collapse of the food supply if foreign trade was available, which had been available for much of Kanzlian history.

- Also, saying Boxing Day 1960 as the main cause is a Post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy. Whilst the Kanzlian Collapse happened after Boxing Day 1960, this does not imply that Boxing Day 1960 caused the Kanzlian Collapse. The passage itself doesnt provide enough evidence to make that claim.

Why is it not the Szbedansk Shipyard Fire?

- The Szbedansk shipyard fire, as the name suggests, is a fire on the shipyard. A shipyard is the place where ships are being built, repaired or scrapped. Whilst it may have caused economic problems as the shipbuilding industry is very large in Kanzlia - It bears no correlation with the shipping industry. The ability for Kanzlia to receive foreign ships should not be affected by the yards ships are built in burning down.

Why is it not the disbandment of the national grain reserve in 1951?

- The disbanding happened in 1951, whereas the Kanzlian Collapse started in 1960. The disbandment wasn't a response to an immediate threat but rather a previous policy decision. While it's a crucial factor that worsened the famine, it's not the main cause as 9 years onwards nothing happened.

- The disbandment meant Kanzlia had no buffer during the crisis. This undoubtedly exacerbated the situation once the grain flow stopped. However, it wouldn't have caused the initial shortage in the first place. If trade relations were intact, even without the national reserve, Kanzlia could have potentially imported grain from other countries to address any shortfall caused by the harsh winter.

Why is it not the lack of policy to combat famine by the government?

- A famine policy is a measure taken after a famine occurs. This passage states that there is no such a thing and therefore did not trigger the famine it was meant to respond to. What it did was worsen the situation.

Why is it the breakdown of trading relations with neighbouring countries?

- The question asks for the main cause. Its not plural and therefore a single event is asked.

- It is stated that the answers of the questions comes entirely from factbooks. Therefore the answer must've been mentioned in the factbook.

- Logically speaking, if Kanzlia suffered a harsh winter, lost their shipbuilding industry, had no reserve, or still have no famine policy BUT still have trading relations - Kanzlia could just import more. Its something they've been doing for centuries

However even if Kanzlia didn't suffer a harsh winter, their shipbuilding industry is completely fine and has a reserve and have a famine policy BUT trade relations are broken - Kanzlia would still face a famine (or at the very least some food problems) because they cannot grow grain by themselves and now they cant import grain.

- The harsh winter of 1960 might have strained food supplies, but without the trade disruptions, Kanzlia could have imported grain to compensate for a lower harvest. The shipyard fire, while impacting the economy, wouldn't necessarily prevent grain imports entirely if alternative means of acquiring foreign currency existed. The disbandment of the national grain reserve in 1951 left Kanzlia vulnerable, but it wouldn't have caused the initial shortage if trade functioned normally. The lack of a famine relief plan is a consequence of the crisis, a failing that worsened the death toll, but it wouldn't have been the reason for the food shortage itself.

- Events as complex as famines is hardly caused by a single event in a day. The Boxing Day 1960 implies a cold winter on that day (boxing day is 26th December), Szbedansk Shipyard Fire implies that the fire only affected the shipyards and didn't affect the rest of the city (otherwise just call it the Szbedansk Fire) , the disbandment of grain reserve means Kanzlia lost a safety net, not a primary food source.