Sunday, 2033 December 21 > Home > Manifesto
A PAIR OF HORSES were talking about technology. One was worried that the mechanical machines around them would take away all their jobs. "Fear not", said the other, "this is good." The former thought about it then agreed. How couldn't it be? No more do they have to work on harsh farms, or carry grain supply from Scranton to New York, or perish on a battlefield. Instead, horses now live in the cities of the 1910s, where more people have led to more jobs. Sure, these new and strange 'automobiles' might take away the horses' current profession. But that will just open up even more opportunities. Better technology, more jobs for horses, right? So did the horses thought.
Those new jobs never came. They reached a ceiling where both their muscular and cognitive capability has been outcompeted.
From 1910-1960, horse population fell by 88% as the demand for their existence crashes. Horses need not exist, for horses need not apply.
There is the problem of the Useless Class. For the longest time, society is divided into the workers class, who produces wealth; the middle class, who collects wealth; and the ruling class, who controls wealth. Today, just like how automobiles rendered horses useless, automation and AI has rendered the aforementioned economic model irrelevant. The world is segregated between those who innovate and those who loiter. As a result, in this world of acceleration, humans are separating into two distinct biological species:
One third are the Homo deus (the God species), consisted of a high-skilled, highly educated population able to utilize their creativity and ability to learn, enabling them to adapt to any circumstances. They're innovators, researchers, engineers, content makers, community leaders, and those able to make the world a better place. They will have access to the incoming biotechnological and AI revolution of brain chips and genetic hyper-intelligence.
The other two-third are Homo inutilis (the useless species). They are the permanently jobless due to automation, those of the hereditarily low-intelligence, and the retired elderly. They, totalling at around 6-7 billion in 2060, will be rendered completely useless.
This biological divergence, which in 2050-2060 will reach a scale of difference similar to between modern humans and chimpanzees, will have an impact to human civilization like never seen before.
Automation already sent 1 in 3 people in the workforce into permanent unemployment. Forever. This figure is growing.
The elderly is now an astonishing 18% of the population of China, 20% of the US, 25% of EU's, and 33% of Japan's.
To keep these useless class alive, the US for example is forced to throw away two-thirds of its annual federal budget in the form of pension, medical care, basic income, and other forms of welfare, while getting very little in return, resulting in ballooning debt and excruciating crunch on the productive class (who pay for the ordeal). The more the useless class, the higher the expenditure.
At the same time, the productive class population kept diminishing in numbers, contributing to the alarming stagnation of both economic growth and tax revenue. The less the producing class, the less the revenue.
This has made the welfare system in the US (and nearly in every single other major nation) a Ponzi scheme waiting to spectacularly implode. Sadly we can't cut those social programs on a whim either, for poverty and unemployment are already the #1 cause of depression, mental health crisis, drug abuse, suicide, broken families, radicalism, and domestic terrorism of 2032. Austerity will destroy the economy and trigger a violent revolution, which we cannot afford. Meanwhile, the fall of the unipolar world order and non-existence of international coordination has made it near impossible for national governments to tax the new owners of the means of production, the tech giants.
The effects will be disastrous.
In the next 15 years, four billion unemployable or elderly people will live their whole daily life completely dependent on direct government assistance. Without it, they will either starve to death, immigrate in the hundreds of millions, or incite a violent mass insurrection. This necessitates a massive welfare spending on a scale like never seen before, plunging governments into debt and financial disarray.
Yet the ever-growing Ponzi-Esque US welfare state is set to fully go bankrupt in around 2037, which is four years away, threatening a debt spiral. China, Japan, and the European Union meanwhile have already plunged into said spiral, so it's too late there. As the Great Wealth Flight (due to tax hikes in various parts of the world, practically doubling the crises' intensity) of the late 2020s shown, continuing on such a scale for the next 40 years is mathematically unsustainable.
It's even worse in many other places, because tech industries are largely concentrated in large tech cities such as Reno Area, Tel Aviv, or Shenzen, leaving everybody else with peanuts. Green energy breakthroughs will cause the total extinction of the fossil fuel industry. Automation will kill cheap manufacturing. This will starve to death the budgets of 50-60 national governments reliant on oil, gas, coal, and cheap labor, even if they don't increase welfare spending (and they have to).
This will only get worse. And yet, this isn't but a mere one-third of our crisis.
THIS WILL ONLY GET WORSE.
Automation will have a disastrous effect, and there is no way to stop it. This has happened for hundreds of years, and those against technology always lose without exception. The Luddite radical left panic of the mid-2020s, for example, had severely damaged US technological competitiveness and economic growth, while giving China an immeasurable advantage.
Yet this is nothing compared to what's happening in the background. Case in point, climate change, a civilization-level existential threat:
99% of the world's entire coral ecosystem, of which 275 million people directly depends upon daily, is already being wiped out and will dissappear completely within 15-20 years, significantly accelerating the global maritime mass extinction and food chain distruption.
By 2080, coastal population concentrations of East Asia, South Asia, and Africa will be destroyed by flooding and sea level rise of >50m, displacing around 1-2 billion people and destroying swathes of agricultural lands. 40-45 sovereign nations totalling a few billion faces total political, cultural, and societal collapse.
Lethal heat waves will affect 55% of the global population by 2050. Sahel and Sub-Sahara, Northern China, Central Asia, and the Indian subcontinent –totalling at several billion people– are currently facing extreme water shortage, agricultural collapse, political discontent, and catastrophic desertification, causing tens of millions of annual death while ballooning the risk of war and nuclear war.
This will happen in tandem with overpopulation in that very area, where Niamey, Niger for example will grow from less than a million to 46 million. Billions will live in dysfunctional, dense megalopolises dominated by vast informal settlements, their infrastructure nonexistent or collapsing. Africa will grow by 1.7 billion more, but without an economic boom like Asia in the 1990s – a recipe for explosive continent-wide instability and a refugee crisis of 1.2 billion in the next 15-20 years.
As the climax, the single most lethal effect of climate change is a hothouse earth which increases the global temperature by 13°C through an apocalyptic positive loop. The destruction of the biosphere will reduce the planetary carrying capacity to 1 billion, killing 90-95% of humanity in the process.
It is not hard to see how more problems, such as wars and terrorism, will bloom from this chaos and add to the positive loop. This is terrible, and it is okay to panic.
But these are expected threats.
Cyberattacks obliterating our integrated city systems. Novel plagues. Bioterrorism. The collapse of the Gulf Stream. Nanomachine "grey goo". AI takeover. Total maritime collapse due to global ocean acidification. Unexpected threats, as we saw in the 2020 Coronavirus Pandemic, may be twenty times more destructive. We have zero ideas about what or how will they be.
And we're not prepared.
ACCELERATION EQUALS RESILIENCE.
What was the solution to the 2020 Pandemic? Was it the lockdown, or massive government stimulus? Nope – it was a vaccine. What about the aging population, is it Medicare-for-all and a gigantic tax hike? Nope – it's immortality and health tech revolution. Water shortage? Desalination. Climate change? Revolutionary and rapid development on renewable and nuclear energy, and geoengineering.
One thing unite them all: they can only come to widespread existence through innovation. And innovation can only come through innovators.
Innovation is the solution, in almost all cases. This is the norm, not the exception. Four words describe the 21st century: volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity. Unpredictable disasters come and go, wreaking havoc while governments are clueless. And we are always left off worse than when we started. Repeat this twenty times, and you can start to see how flawed our current model of crisis management is. Yet as we march on, crises will stack up at an accelerated rate.
We need a new system of global resilience: one that can innovate its way out of any problem, at the same rate of acceleration. And to have that, these four things are necessary, four things we actively aim to achieve:
Massive amount of capital, allocated by the free market system,
High levels of education, healthcare, welfare, and standards of living,
Global regulatory uniformity and political stability, and
Universal basic income to soften the impact of these radical changes.
These are the medicine to the crisis of automation. For the whole world to transition away from the industrial economy and into a knowledge-based innovation economy, where evolving institutions, entrepreneurs, and technological changes are at the heart of economic growth. Where wealth is not generated by the accumulation of land or capital, but by innovative capacity spurred by appropriable knowledge and technological externalities. Those who can't participate –the useless species– are of zero to negative value for civilization.
Resilient Acceleration is founded by futurists and big corporations; that's neither a secret nor a coincidence. Because when you look at what kind of corporations sit in our Forum, our commitment to innovation suddenly becomes obvious. Notice that our Leader is not a Rothschild patriarch, but a young, cutting edge health entrepreneur. Notice the visionary politicians, elected by the people in their home countries, sitting on our Board. Notice the lack of Big Banks, or Big Pharma, or Big Oil, or the Military-Industrial Complex among our ranks.
Let's accept reality: innovation, progress, and technological advancements are both the engine and the savior of any civilization. Thus, it is an objective truth that, at least in the lens of civilization, the life and prosperity of innovators are orders of magnitudes valuable than the life and prosperity of the static useless class, who do nothing for civilizational advancement except of squandering valuable time and resources. With the correct mindset in place, we will achieve rapid advancement, and we will deliver for you global resilience.
WE WILL ENFORCE IT.
Two factors will derail global resilience: resource cap, and time. We said that those unable to participate in the innovation economy is of no value to civilization. Now, let's explore what will happen if they are actually useful to civilization. Say, suddenly, all 9 billion humans are equal, smart, educated, productive, and enjoy the same living standards of an average American.
These three statements are true:
If everyone on the planet consumed as much as the average US citizen, five Earths would be needed to sustain them.
We only have one Earth.
Therefore, civilization will immediately collapse under that scenario.
An innovative population requires more resources to maintain: the carbon footprint of a software developer is fifty times that of the farmers of Kenya. Will innovation be able to reduce this footprint? Yes, but they need time. And time has ran out – squandered by the useless politicians of the last 30 years. So no, innovation won't be enough to save civilization. Sadly, another action must be decisively taken.
We will now put all our choices in a table.
Make everyone in the world prosperous.
Unsustainable increase in environmental strain. Environmental collapse by 2060, progress is reversed. Refugee crisis of billions. Total disaster.
Only let a third of the world be prosperous, and force the rest to stay around the poverty line.
The world is segregated between the God class and the useless species. Revolution, mass poverty, terrorism, war, humanitarian crises. Refugee crisis of billions. Total disaster.
Only let a third of the world be prosperous, and erase the other two-thirds.
Selectively reduce the global population by 60-65%. Reckless depopulation have many side effects that will derail the promised innovation economy, so it should be implemented carefully.
We chose the last option. This is logical. The useless species won't pose any problem if there is no useless species. Not only will it single-handedly solve the global unemployment, and welfare implosion, and the impending refugee crisis, which will be a straightforward solution for desperate national governments currently grappled by these three issues. For global depopulation by 60-65% will also:
Buy enough time for innovation to significantly reduce our footprint, thereby increasing the fraction of the population that can be allowed to prosper later, and
Free up an unfathomble amount of resource and funds. Funding for global pension, basic income, and healthcare will be gradually cut down by 75-80%, and all the money will be reallocated directly into paying for RA-sponsored programs.
In particular, we project that a peaceful planet-wide genocide of the useless class will free up around $150-200 trillion per decade from state budgets. This is more than enough to save the world and transition into a global innovation economy.
Now, we don't plan to kill two-thirds of the planet at once. A rapid decrease in population is shown to have adverse effects in national economies, which will compromise our goal of innovative global resilience. Not to mention that genocide on such a scale would understandably trigger a massive wave of anger against us, and derail our plan to save the world.
What we aim is a gradual, peaceful global depopulation, which will take 45 years to complete. We will achieve this by reducing the global population by -1.19%, or 90 million, every year. Thus, for the next 45 years:
Global birth rate must be forcibly suppressed, through both global programs to raise living standards in developing countries, mass proliferation of education and contraception, and state-sanctioned population control.
Specifically, the birth rate of the useless species must be completely suppressed to near zero by force. Two-thirds of global birth will happen in Africa, so we will direct much of our focus there.
Methods includes reproduction permits, surveillance, gradual total erasure of pro-reproduction subsidies such as single parent benefits, punitive child tax, regional child quotas, quota auctions, candidate parent ranking and evaluation programs, and gene registration.
Enforcement methods to crackdown on illegal baby procreation will take form of welfare cutting to near zero, service discrimination, public shaming, permanent records, blacklisting, to outright action by the law enforcement. This will be more and more relevant as more people will be completely dependent on government-given UBI checks just to survive daily, and will have no choice but to voluntarily stop reproducing if they want the government to keep feeding them.
Is that all? No. Suppression of the birth rate will lead to disastrous global aging, which will be even worse. This is why global depopulation is only half of the plan.
The other half is immortality technology–which will be distributed to, and only to, the chosen 3-4 billion survivors. Imagine if all the elderly have passed away, while biological aging and disease ends. We will be able to free up half of the world's budget, currently wasted away to prolong the life of the retired, and spend it on more important things. We can fund education and space exploration. We can invest in stopping climate change. We can boost innovative industries. We will boost our civilization like never seen before!
This is our destiny. We will make sure that no matter what happens, Hope keeps ongoing.
Thus, our mission:
Establishment of a new, strong world order to carry out our missions and rectify global problems.
Total eradication of Homo inutilis (the useless species) population in 45 years, while securing immortality and prosperity for Homo deus (the God species).
Ensure the survival of civilization long enough and free up enough funds to ensure the coming of the Fourth Impact.
Resilient Acceleration can't do this alone. To save the world, we need the support of the world. Our forum may be stacked with cutting-edge industry leaders and visionary politicians, yet we still need talents to fill our staff, as legitimate and passionate talents make better executors than corrupt lobbyists and shadowy conspirators vulnerable to sunlight.
We are not stupid. We are well aware that our missions sounds like a menacing conspiracy doomed for failure upon leak to the press. Not if we instead choose to just be open and honest to the world about our intentions, campaign and defend our findings through public debate, and actually win just enough public approval through standard democratic methods (with the help of our innovative capabilities, such as GPT-5). Then Project Impact won't be a secret conspiracy anymore, and instead, turn into a well-known, well-funded, UN-sanctioned comprehensive international program, voluntarily backed by geopolitical powers and endorsed by YouTube science channels. That's our criteria of success. When that happens, we cannot be stopped, even if all of our Board members are assasinated. When that happens, we know that Hope keeps ongoing.
Resilient Acceleration is now holding the 2033 Open Recruitment. Find out more at resilientacceleration.org/2033OpRec.