by Max Barry

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Legislative Elections

Election Polling for the next Anurialian Legislative Election (June 2021)

Since the 9th of July, Politipolls has been holding daily polls with thousands of participants to determine how citizens would vote if an election was held that day. Above is a graph containing these results. The figures can be found here. This graph should be updated every few days.

Results of the Anurialian Legislative Election June 2020

Party Abbrev.

Seats won

Popular vote

Seats last election

Seat change

Swing

PSF

169

4,843,337 (42.31%)

203 (50.95%)

🔻34

🔻8.5 pp

PDS

108

3,098,774 (27.07%)

104 (26.92%)

🔺4

🔺0.1 pp

NLA

86

2,453,148 (21.43%)

76 (20.12%)*

🔺10

🔺1.3 pp

SU

34

961,570 (8.4%)

3 (0.97%)*

🔺31

🔺7.4 pp

AF

3

90,435 (0.79%)

N/A

N/A

N/A

*Party did not participate in the last election, but a similar party did

Turnout: 91.7% (🔻1.5 pp)

The June 2020 election was called in accordance with the constitution setting monthly elections. This has since been changed to annually with the Constitutional Reform Act 2020. The People's Determination Front dominated this election being 15 points ahead of the PDS in second place. However, they still lost 34 seats and 8.5 pp compared to the May election. They suffered from appearing either as radicals or as fighters, not politicians. This explains the slight rise of the Path to Democratic Socialism and National Liberal Alliance. However, a far greater detriment to the PSF's votes was the Syndicalist Union adopting a syndicalist approach, rather than the Marxist-Leninist one it took under the name of the Anurialian Unity Party, eschewing the centralistic approach as decentralisation was very popular. The SU had the support of the trade unions, whilst the PSF hadn't really taken any steps to gain the support of the unions. This is because the PSF advocated for workers forming their own democratic councils to run the workplace, rather than through the unions, which the PSF argued were lacking in democratic processes.

The PDS was expected to do very well but failed and stagnated, only gaining 4 seats. It is theorised that this is because of the PDS relying on absorbing the urban older voters that the previous NCU left behind, as well as hoping that the PSF lost a lot more votes than they actually did. These urban older voters instead went to the SU, with their strong history with the trade unions. The PSF also announced a commitment to "Gradual Liberalism" which showed an acceptance of being reasonable, and not rebelling for the sake of rebelling. Demographic data shows they still competed well against the PSF in the middle-class, a hotly-contested demographic.

The NLA, whilst gaining 10 seats compared to the former LRA, it actually ended up getting a single seat more than all parties that merged to create the NLA got combined. The left-wing parties did a good job at marketing socialism to the population. It's possible that the only reason the NLA didn't lose votes was due to its stance on the government's anti-theism policy and the support of secularism. It's rural base feel very strongly about it, with protests against the policy from the 5th of July until the 10th of July in various cities in Pasria.

The Syndicalist Union was elected to 34 seats. The lack of mutual support between the PSF and the trade unions was heavily exploited by the SU, positioning themselves as the party of the unions. They criticised the PSF's lack of support for an institution that historically supported Anurialian independence and workers. "Radical environmentalism" was also a common talking-point, as many SU candidates argued that the PSF was pursuing a policy that was needlessly environmentally-friendly at the cost of the workers.

The Anurial First party was elected to 3 seats, which is a significant loss compared to what is argued by some left-wing commentators to be AF's spiritual ancestor, the NCU. They were edged out in the rural areas by the NLA since AF has a rather radical platform that is so antithetical to the principles Anurial was founded upon.

The main 3 issues of the June 2020 election were the trade unions, anti-theism, and economic strategy. The SU did well on the issue of the unions in audiences made up of the same amount of people for each party, though the PSF wasn't far behind. The PDS was ahead on anti-theism and the PSF on economic strategy.

Trade unions
PSF: Unions have an undemocratic structure and are sometimes susceptible to corruption, so ought to be reformed or replaced.
PDS: Unions have an important place in fighting for worker rights against both government and corporations. They ought to remain as they are.
NLA: Unions can drive up prices for ordinary folk by increasing costs of small businesses. Their power ought to be curbed.
SU: Unions are important in upholding worker rights and are a historical treasure, so ought to be preserved and incorporated into governing.
AF: Unions, while useful at fighting for worker rights, have been unsuccessful, whilst the government has been the one legislating for these rights. Unions ought to be replaced by one central government-owned union.

Anti-theism
PSF/SU: Anti-theism is important for keeping religion out of the public sphere and avoids potential influence over science or education, so ought to remain in place.
PDS/NLA/AF: Anti-theism is unconstitutional, as it derides the principle of secularism. The government ought to adopt a policy of secularism, rather than anti-theism.

Economic Strategy
PSF: Democratise the economy. Decommodify all resources and create a decentrally-planned economy.
PDS: Reintroduce property to be owned by individuals, nationalise key industries and utilities, creating a mixed economy.
NLA: Reintroduce property to be owned by individuals, privatise most industries. Work towards a market economy.
SU: Form decentralised councils of union officials and consolidate resources in these areas away from small business to large, efficient, enterprises. This would form a decentrally-planned economy.
AF: Nationalise all industries and commit to a centrally-planned economy

Despite the SU gaining a lot of popularity from criticising the PSF, the two socialist parties committed to forming a coalition government when no lone party gained a majority. The PSF-SU coalition has enough seats by 3 to form a government. A PSF-PDS coalition was possible but unlikely, and a PDS-NLA coalition would not have had enough seats. Therefore, an anti-capitalist alliance seemed to make the most sense. The agreement was reached in 2 days, with both parties making numerous promises to one another. The government is likely to go until the next election in June 2021. The details of the current government can be found here.

This election formed a government that is anti-capitalist and is going to direct Anurial through its creation. This was a pivotal election in the early years of Anurial and will set out the political landscape for the coming decades. It also confirmed that Anurial will remain solidly left-wing for the foreseeable future as left-wing parties received 77.78% of the vote, assuming that the socially liberal NLA isn't left-wing.

This election has been used by political scientists as the basis for how Anurialian politics is going to be in the next few decades, with three major political currents: Libertarian Socialism, Social Democracy, and Liberalism. These are represented by the PSF and SU, the PDS, and the NLA. The PSF is expected to be dominant for the foreseeable future, competently governing and distributing a significant degree of power never seen before to local communities. The main threat to the PSF's position appears to be external to Anurial or internal to the party structure itself.

An anti-capitalist victory will also lead to the continuation of a mass Schwazen emigration back to Karsia, as conservative Schwazen people flee back to Karsia to escape the social revolution. Internationally, most countries have reconciled with the result, with even the conservative Camrian Prime Minister accepting what happened. This has bolstered the spirits of left-wing parties across the globe to push for progressive change within their respective political systems.

Results of the Anurialian Legislative Election May 2020

PSF: 203 seats
PDS: 104 seats
LRF: 76 seats
NCU: 8 seats
AGP: 4 seats
AUP: 3 seats
FEP: 1 seat
VRG: 1 seat

Turnout: 93.2%

Analysis

This election was the first in Anurial's history. It was dominated by the PSF, led by various revolutionaries. Some doubt their ability to govern, however, instead they voted for the PDS. The LRF garnered votes from those sceptical of socialism but still opposed to the far-right policies of Karsia. The NCU capitalised on the socially conservative rural voters in Campila. Both the AGP and FEP got votes from some of the young voters who felt it necessary to put green politics and economic liberalism on the agenda. The AUP was mostly voted for by old industrial workers, longing for the old days of socialism. The VRG only got votes from a few old religious fundamentalists.

Following the election, several changes were made to the dynamic of parties in Anurial. The NCU and FEP merged into the LRF. The AGP merged into the PSF. The VRG disbanded and the AUP went through a process of re-evaluating their values, officially identifying now with a syndicalist approach, allying closely with some of the unions in Anurial. A radical section of the NCU split off to form a nationalist group.

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